For an $838 billion industry, the aerospace industry, comprised of aircraft manufacturing, missile & defense, space, and MRO sectors, is remarkably centralized. According to a study by AeroDynamic Advisory and the Teal Group, 87 percent of the industry’s output derives from just 10 countries.

The scale of output some of these countries are responsible for should hardly come as a surprise. The United States, for example, remains at the top of the list with 49 percent of total market share, even as talk of tariffs, outsourcing, and overseas competition continue to concern industry analysts. France, the UK, and Germany, also make the list on the back of their high volume of exports and MRO sectors. Canada, known to most as the location of Bombardier, also sits firmly in the top 10.

What is interesting about this study, however, is that it also signals the emergence of some new markets that are already threatening to permanently alter the status quo – with each adopting very different strategies to do so. Should current trends continue, the major industry players could look very different in just a few years’ time.

China

The fact that China is already ranked third on AeroDynamic Advisory’s list is a testament to the extraordinary commitment the government has made to developing an aerospace division to rival its western peers. How close they currently are, however, is a difficult question to answer.

Although estimates value the Chinese division at approximately $61 million, the majority of their market share relies not on international exports but on domestic consumption. Combine this with the Chinese government’s reputation for secrecy, we simply do not have enough information to accurately forecast just how advanced they currently are. From what we can see, however, early results are certainly promising.

If there’s one thing China does not lack, it’s ambition. The state-owned China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC), for example, currently employs over 170,000 workers, generates approximately $35 million in annual revenue, and currently has its eyes on innovative pursuits such as nuclear space shuttles, micro rockets, and defense technologies. According to CASC chairman Lei Fanpei, China is on track to put more than 200 spacecraft into orbit by 2020, averaging approximately 30 launches a year. By 2030, he estimates their aerospace division will be second only to the U.S. in scale — and in some sectors, second to none.

India

India just barely makes AeroDynamic Advisory’s top 10 list, but it has all the makings of an emerging superpower.

According to Rajeev Kaul, Chief Financial Officer and Managing Director of Aequs Aerospace, the global commercial aircraft market expects to see 4.8 percent growth in 2018. Although India has only recently entered into the commercial aerospace discussion as the source of Tier-II and Tier-III component suppliers, rapidly escalating demand for air passenger offerings in the West Asia and Pacific regions is poised to give the country prime position in an emerging market.

“The big picture,” says Kaul, “is that the industry growth is two times or more the GDP. Aerospace industry grew by 20 percent as compared to India’s GDP growth of 7-8 percent.”

Unlike China’s growth, which has been primarily insular in nature, India’s potential seems driven by a willingness to forge international partnerships. Their low manufacturing costs, which can be as low as 20 percent below competing markets, has also seen significant interest from European OEMs seeking cost-effective, high-quality components in their designs. UK-based aerospace companies such as Cobham Aerospace Communications, Vaayu, and Frequentis UK Ltd have all expressed commitment to supporting India’s “Make in India” initiative, and the country’s role as market driver continues to attract additional business every year. Martin-Baker Aircraft Co Ltd, for example, one of the world’s leading manufacturers of pilot ejection seats, cites India as their second-largest market after the U.S.

As the Indian market continues to make strides as an aircraft manufacturer as well as a component supplier with favorable government support, analysts anticipate their market share to increase to $70 billion by 2030.